航天器再入陨落解体模型及分析预报策略研究(6)
8 结论
1) 提出并阐述了航天器再入陨落解体三层级模型(TPM)(含碎片/微粒模型BCSM)以及基于条件边界的参数统计方法。 该三层级模型融合了面向物体法涉及碎片/微粒层级和面向航天器法设计系统/子系统和部件层级的思想。
2) 针对航天器再入陨落解体过程仿真建模存在不确定性气动力/热及飞行状态参数,发展了基于条件边界的参数统计方法,通过相关软件研制及对一个大型航天器实例的再入陨落解体过程分析,说明提出的模型和分析预报基本策略是合理可行的。
3) 后续工作将继续细化量化三层级模型、条件边界及参数分布统计等设定。 航天器再入陨落解体过程分析预报的精准度依赖于基础研究成果的支撑程度,这是针对航天器再入陨落解体过程空气动力学相关科学问题深入研究的驱动力。
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